Decision Models and Processes

Elementary algebra and basic notions of probability (12th-grade level or equivalent).

• ME1. Interactive Lecturing: structured presentation of the key concepts of each chapter, with guided questions and digital response tools (e.g. Kahoot/Mentimeter), linked to OA1-OA2.

• ME2. Problem-Based Learning (PBL): each chapter anchored in a real or realistic decision problem, solved progressively (OA1-OA3).

• ME3. Classroom Gamification: simulations and structured games per chapter – decision under risk/uncertainty (team-based scoring), utility elicitation (paired exercises), a Game Theory tournament (successive rounds), and a final integrative challenge. Scores feed directly into MA1.

• ME4. Group Project Work: application of a decision model to a real or realistic case, culminating in a report (OA1-OA5, CD1, CD2, CD4).

• ME5. Tutorial Guidance: small-group follow-up sessions to support the project and clarify doubts.

Upon completion of this course unit, students will be able to:

• OA1. Identify and characterise different types of decision problems (with and without an active competitor).

• OA2. Build and interpret decision-support models under conditions of certainty, risk and uncertainty.

• OA3. Apply utility criteria to incorporate the decision-maker’s subjectivity into a structured problem.

• OA4. Formulate and solve zero-sum games, identifying optimal strategies and equilibrium points.

• OA5. Select, justify and critically defend the decision methodology best suited to a real or simulated case.

Associated skills:

• CD1. Analytical and Quantitative Thinking: ability to translate a management problem into a formal decision model.

• CD2. Strategic Reasoning: ability to anticipate a “competitor’s” behaviour and adjust one’s own strategy accordingly.

• CD3. Communication and Argumentation: ability to present and orally defend methodological choices before the group/instructor.

• CD4. Teamwork and Negotiation: ability to cooperate and compete constructively in a simulation/game setting.

• P1. Introductory Concepts

• 1.1. Decision models and processes – concepts, description and framework

• 1.2. Decision problems and processes – motivation and context

• 1.3. Representation of problems – relations and models, general concepts and illustrations

• P2. Decision Analysis

• 2.1. The decision process and its stages – characterisation and requirements

• 2.2. Treatment of decision problems – resolution techniques, characteristics and limitations

• 2.3. Decision-making under certainty, risk and uncertainty

• 2.4. Incorporating the decision-maker’s subjectivity: utility criteria

• 2.5. Illustrative examples

• P3. Introduction to Game Theory

• 3.1. Decision-making with an active “competitor” – context

• 3.2. The concept of a “game” and its underlying assumptions

• 3.3. Stable zero-sum games – characterisation, illustration and application examples

• P4. Other Approaches and Application Cases

• 4.1. Extensions and emerging models within Decision Theory

• 4.2. Integrated application cases (synthesis of previous chapters)

Students may choose one of two assessment regimes.

A) Continuous Assessment

MA1: Participation and performance in gamified classroom activities (ME3). AI directive: Level 0.

20% · mandatory

MA2: Two individual written tests, closed-book (Ch. 1-2 and Ch. 3-4). AI directive: Level 0.

30% (15%+15%) · min. 8.5

MA3: Group project. AI directive: Level 2 (AI allowed as a support tool for research/drafting, with a mandatory declaration of use).

30% · min. 9.5

MA4: Individual oral presentation and defence of the project. Mandatory to validate MA3. AI directive: Level 0.

20% · min. 9.5

Final Grade Formula (Continuous Assessment):

CF = 0.20 × MA1 + 0.30 × MA2 + 0.30 × MA3 + 0.20 × MA4

Working Student Status:

Exempt from the attendance requirement for MA1; MA1 is replaced by an equivalent-weight individual written assignment (20%), while MA2, MA3 and MA4 remain mandatory (the oral defence is always individual).

Grade improvement / retention:

Students may choose to keep the grades obtained for MA1, MA2 and MA3 during the semester and repeat only the component(s) they wish to improve, within the deadline set by the academic calendar, upon registration with the instructor.

B) Examination-Based Assessment (Resit/Special Examination Periods)

An exceptional route for students who do not complete continuous assessment; assessment based solely on a final examination is not the recommended regime for this course unit.

MA5: Individual written examination.

60% · min. 9.5

MA6: Individual oral grade-defence examination.

40% · min. 9.5

Examination Formula:

CF = 0.60 × MA5 + 0.40 × MA6

Under either regime, passing the course unit requires a minimum final grade of 10 (on a 0-20 scale).

In either regime, in the event of a well-founded suspicion of fraud detected during the exam correction phase, the student will be called to take an oral examination to verify the knowledge and skills demonstrated in the written exams. The oral examination will be conducted by a board consisting of the course unit's instructor and two other instructors from the same field. If the student fails to demonstrate the knowledge and skills shown in the written exam, that exam will be annulled.

NAO