Evaluation and Risk Management

Programming and Statistics basic knowledge.

Theoretical classes: expositive teaching and presentation of the fundamental concepts relevant to the curricular unit.

Theoretical-practical lessons: presentation of problems and subsequent practical resolution (numerical and computational).

Skills

Generic Competencies:

1- Create and develop the ability to interpret and master basic concepts of Risk Assessment and Management, to communicate topics of the area exposing ideas, problems, information and interconnection with the external environment.

2- Develop personal skills that allow students to learn independently.

3. Provide students with the ability to work in groups, developing interpersonal relationships as a way to improve their insertion in the labor market.

4- Instill the concern for the quality and rigor in the acquisition of the basic concepts of these areas of knowledge, concepts that will allow the development of decision-making capacities towards of uncertainty.

Specific Skills:

1- Develop knowledge and understanding skills in the areas of Risk Assessment and Management, based on the knowledge acquired in class, in the texts of the specialty and in research conducted by the students.

2. Provide students with the ability to apply the knowledge acquired to solve specific problems and concrete cases of their daily life, thus understanding the world in which they live.

3- Create the capacity to collect, select and interpret relevant information, combined with the ability to analyze, synthesize and formulate own opinions that will allow an active participation in solving problems in these areas of knowledge.

1. Uncertainty and Risk

1.1. Definition of Uncertainty and Risk

1.2. Elements of Uncertainty and Risk in the Structuring of Decisions and in Projects

1.3. Nature and the Sources of Uncertainty

1.4. Uncertainty and (the role of) Sensitivity Analysis

1.5. Uncertainty and (the role of) Risk Management

2. Risk analysis

2.1. Risk Modeling and Uncertainty.

3. Basic Probability Revision

3.1. Subjective Probabilities

3.2. Theoretical Probability Models

3.3. Data-based Probability Models

4. Simulation

4.1. Information Value

4.2. Risk Attitudinal Modeling

4.3. Use of Spreadsheet (Excel) and Programming Languages (Matlab and Python) in Simulation.

5. Risk management

5.1. Key Concepts

5.2. Reasons for the use of formal risk management processes

5.3. Risk Management Processes and its Information Base

5.4. Risk Management Initiated at Different Stages of the Project Life Cycle

5.5. Effective and Efficient Risk Management

5.6. Risk Management in Contracts Perspective

5.7. Organization for Risk Management

NAO

        ESTATÍSTICA /Guimarães, R.C. e Sarsfield Cabral, J.A., Edição Revista. McGraw-Hill – 1998
·       PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT FOR ENGINEERS AND SCIENTISTS / Kumamoto,H. and Henley, E.J.  – 2nd Edition, IEEE Press, New York, 1996
·       MANAGING THE RISKS OF ORGANISATIONAL ACCIDENTS /Reason, James – Ashgate Publishing Ltd, Aldershot Hants – 1997
·       DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING/ Albright, Christian; Winston, Wayne; Zappe, Christopher. Brooks/Cole (Thomson Learning), 2003
·       DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING WITH MICROSOFT EXCEL/ Albright, Christian, Winston, Wayne; Zappe, Christopher. Thomson Southwestern, 3rd Edition – 2006
·       MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISION TOOLS SUITE UPDATE EDITION/ Clemen, Robert; Reilly, Terry – South-Western College Pub., 2004.
·       QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR BUSINESS / Anderson, David Ray; Sweeney, Dennis J; Williams, Thomas Arthur. — Cincinnati, Ohio: South-Western College Pub. , 1998.
·       BASIC BUSINESS STATISTICS: concepts and applications / Levine, David M; Berenson, Mark L. — Prentice-Hall, 1996.
·       MANAGEMENT SCIENCE MODELING / Albright, Christian S. ; Winston, Wayne L.; Broadie, Mark Nathan ; Lapin, Lawrence L. ; Whisler, William D. – Thomson South-Western (3rd ed.) – 2007.
·       STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS / Newbold, Paul; Carlson, William; Thorne, Betty; Prentice Hall (Pearson Studies)-2003
·       STATISTICS- A TOOL FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH / Healey, Joseph F. Sixt edition. London: Wadsworth, Thomson Learning – 2002